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Tobacco Control 2011;20(Suppl 1):i25ei29

Further, the study examined prices in relation to a single tax increase and did not assess how tobacco compa- nies use pricing to respond to policies such as plain packaging, which reduces the value proposition tobacco brand imagery represents.18 19 Tobacco companies have argued that plain packaging would reduce brand differentiation and consumer choice, and lower prices across market partitions, thus likely increasing smoking prevalence.20 UK studies undertaken after plain packaging was implemented in May 2017 found no evidence prices had reduced over the long term or that the price range had narrowed.16 21 Instead, they reported reduced under- shifting, although this change occurred alongside introduction of a minimum excise tax.16 21 A post- implementation study in Australia, the first country to introduce plain packaging, found that prices displayed on price boards did not decrease post- plain packaging.22 Analyses of RRPs post- plain packaging also found these were higher in real terms (ie, increased beyond inflation) and continued to rise after plain packaging.23 24 Australian studies noted the growth of a Super Value market partition post- plain packaging.25 A large survey of Australians who smoke reported use of value brands had increased and found that price increases post- plain packaging occurred in all market partitions, particularly the Premium partition.26 More recent work found tobacco companies protected the new value partition they had created by cushioning tobacco tax increases and passing these on incrementally over several months.24 Because NZ now has among the highest tobacco prices of any country, tobacco companies have a strong incentive to under- mine tobacco excise taxes (the 2021 price of a pack of 20 Marl- boro cigarettes was NZ$36.90 (~US$25))

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